We develop a practical framework for distinguishing diffusive stochastic processes from deterministic signals using only a single discrete time series. Our approach is based on classical excursion and crossing theorems for continuous semimartingales, which correlates number $N_\varepsilon$ of excursions of magnitude at least $\varepsilon$ with the quadratic variation $[X]_T$ of the process. The scaling law holds universally for all continuous semimartingales with finite quadratic variation, including general Ito diffusions with nonlinear or state-dependent volatility, but fails sharply for deterministic systems -- thereby providing a theoretically-certfied method of distinguishing between these dynamics, as opposed to the subjective entropy or recurrence based state of the art methods. We construct a robust data-driven diffusion test. The method compares the empirical excursion counts against the theoretical expectation. The resulting ratio $K(\varepsilon)=N_{\varepsilon}^{\mathrm{emp}}/N_{\varepsilon}^{\mathrm{theory}}$ is then summarized by a log-log slope deviation measuring the $\varepsilon^{-2}$ law that provides a classification into diffusion-like or not. We demonstrate the method on canonical stochastic systems, some periodic and chaotic maps and systems with additive white noise, as well as the stochastic Duffing system. The approach is nonparametric, model-free, and relies only on the universal small-scale structure of continuous semimartingales.

Score-based generative models have recently attracted significant attention for their ability to generate high-fidelity data by learning maps from simple Gaussian priors to complex data distributions. A natural generalization of this idea to transformations between arbitrary probability distributions leads to the Schrödinger Bridge (SB) problem. However, SB solutions rarely admit closed-form expressios and are commonly obtained through iterative stochastic simulation procedures, which are computationally intensive and can be unstable. In this work, we introduce a unified closed-form framework for representing the stochastic dynamics of SB systems. Our formulation subsumes previously known analytical solutions including the Schrödinger Föllmer process and the Gaussian SB as specific instances. Notably, the classical Gaussian SB solution, previously derived using substantially more sophisticated tools such as Riemannian geometry and generator theory, follows directly from our formulation as an immediate corollary. Leveraging this framework, we develop a simulation-free algorithm that infers SB dynamics directly from samples of the source and target distributions. We demonstrate the versatility of our approach in two settings: (i) modeling developmental trajectories in single-cell genomics and (ii) solving image restoration tasks such as inpainting and deblurring. This work opens a new direction for efficient and scalable nonlinear diffusion modeling across scientific and machine learning applications.

Stochastic evolution laws are a key ingredient to simulate many processes of both fundamental and applied interest in condensed matter physics, materials science and engineering. Fluctuations are central for a proper description of non-equilibrium processes such as nucleation and growth, roughening of free surfaces, rare or activated events and phase transitions [1-5], to cite a few examples. Too coarse approximations of the involved probability distributions lead to inaccurate computational models that are unable to quantitatively reproduce experimental reality. On the other hand, more accurate approaches, such as molecular dynamics (MD) [6, 7] and Kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC) [8-10], may be limited in the possibility of reaching realistic temporal and spatial scales. In recent years, machine learning (ML) has emerged as a new tool to infer probability distributions from data in several fields, allowing for the automatic extraction of correlations between observations [11, 12]. Generative models in particular deal with the task of obtaining ML tools capable of generating new samples from a distribution given only samples extracted from it [13]. Among these approaches, Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) [14] have already proven outstanding capabilities in several fields, e.g,.

We study the convergence properties and escape dynamics of Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD) in one-dimensional landscapes, separately considering infinite- and finite-variance noise. Our main focus is to identify the time scales on which SGD reliably moves from an initial point to the local minimum in the same ''basin''. Under suitable conditions on the noise distribution, we prove that SGD converges to the basin's minimum unless the initial point lies too close to a local maximum. In that near-maximum scenario, we show that SGD can linger for a long time in its neighborhood. For initial points near a ''sharp'' maximum, we show that SGD does not remain stuck there, and we provide results to estimate the probability that it will reach each of the two neighboring minima. Overall, our findings present a nuanced view of SGD's transitions between local maxima and minima, influenced by both noise characteristics and the underlying function geometry.

Time-resolved single-cell omics data offers high-throughput, genome-wide measurements of cellular states, which are instrumental to reverse-engineer the processes underpinning cell fate. Such technologies are inherently destructive, allowing only cross-sectional measurements of the underlying stochastic dynamical system. Furthermore, cells may divide or die in addition to changing their molecular state. Collectively these present a major challenge to inferring realistic biophysical models. We present a novel approach, \emph{unbalanced} probability flow inference, that addresses this challenge for biological processes modelled as stochastic dynamics with growth. By leveraging a Lagrangian formulation of the Fokker-Planck equation, our method accurately disentangles drift from intrinsic noise and growth. We showcase the applicability of our approach through evaluation on a range of simulated and real single-cell RNA-seq datasets. Comparing to several existing methods, we find our method achieves higher accuracy while enjoying a simple two-step training scheme.

This paper develops a model-based framework for continuous-time policy evaluation (CTPE) in reinforcement learning, incorporating both Brownian and L evy noise to model stochastic dynamics influenced by rare and extreme events. Our approach formulates the policy evaluation problem as solving a partial integro-differential equation (PIDE) for the value function with unknown coefficients. A key challenge in this setting is accurately recovering the unknown coefficients in the stochastic dynamics, particularly when driven by L evy processes with heavy tail effects. To address this, we propose a robust numerical approach that effectively handles both unbiased and censored trajectory datasets. This method combines maximum likelihood estimation with an iterative tail correction mechanism, improving the stability and accuracy of coefficient recovery. Additionally, we establish a theoretical bound for the policy evaluation error based on coefficient recovery error. Through numerical experiments, we demonstrate the effectiveness and robustness of our method in recovering heavy-tailed L evy dynamics and verify the theoretical error analysis in policy evaluation.

In this paper we consider a new probability sampling methods based on Langevin diffusion dynamics to resolve the problem of existing Monte Carlo algorithms when draw samples from high dimensional target densities. We extent Metropolis-Adjusted Langevin Diffusion algorithm by modelling the stochasticity of precondition matrix as a random matrix. An advantage compared to other proposal method is that it only requires the gradient of log-posterior. The proposed method provides fully adaptation mechanisms to tune proposal densities to exploits and adapts the geometry of local structures of statistical models. We clarify the benefits of the new proposal by modelling a Quantum Probability Density Functions of a free particle in a plane (energy Eigen-functions). The proposed model represents a remarkable improvement in terms of performance accuracy and computational time over standard MCMC method.

Continuous-time Markov chains have been employed for decades to model a broad spectrum of stochastic systems, including queuing systems (e.g., [3]) and financial markets (e.g., [5, 7]). These models often represent agent behavior in interactive environments, where local and global interaction rules are used to simulate various physical processes (e.g., see [2, 6, 4] for examples). A key question in the analysis of these models is how to derive the transient or stationary probability distributions that capture the system's evolving dynamics or long-term behavior. In this paper, we develope a straightforward stochastic agent-based model for the analysis of agents displaying competitive behavior, striving to survive within a competitive environment. This model has applications across applied finance and social science (see [1]). For instance, in financial markets, firms compete to attract more customers and clients; job market participants frequently switch employers to better fulfill their financial needs; governments work to strengthen their economies, and so forth. In the subsequent section, we begin with a microscopic model where numerous groups or agents exist, each containing a finite number of subagents.

Complex systems in physics, chemistry, and biology that evolve over time with inherent randomness are typically described by stochastic differential equations (SDEs). A fundamental challenge in science and engineering is to determine the governing equations of a complex system from snapshot data. Traditional equation discovery methods often rely on stringent assumptions, such as the availability of the trajectory information or time-series data, and the presumption that the underlying system is deterministic. In this work, we introduce a data-driven, simulation-free framework, called Sparse Identification of Differential Equations from Snapshots (SpIDES), that discovers the governing equations of a complex system from snapshots by utilizing the advanced machine learning techniques to perform three essential steps: probability flow reconstruction, probability density estimation, and Bayesian sparse identification. We validate the effectiveness and robustness of SpIDES by successfully identifying the governing equation of an over-damped Langevin system confined within two potential wells. By extracting interpretable drift and diffusion terms from the SDEs, our framework provides deeper insights into system dynamics, enhances predictive accuracy, and facilitates more effective strategies for managing and simulating stochastic systems.

Reconstructing dynamics using samples from sparsely time-resolved snapshots is an important problem in both natural sciences and machine learning. Here, we introduce a new deep learning approach for solving regularized unbalanced optimal transport (RUOT) and inferring continuous unbalanced stochastic dynamics from observed snapshots. Based on the RUOT form, our method models these dynamics without requiring prior knowledge of growth and death processes or additional information, allowing them to be learnt directly from data. Theoretically, we explore the connections between the RUOT and Schr\"odinger bridge problem and discuss the key challenges and potential solutions. The effectiveness of our method is demonstrated with a synthetic gene regulatory network. Compared with other methods, our approach accurately identifies growth and transition patterns, eliminates false transitions, and constructs the Waddington developmental landscape.